A trip down memory lane
The oh-so-catchy headline above is the title of a Kort Session post I published April 25, 2013(the post). To have the above prices reflect a subsequent (June 9, 2014) 7 for 1 stock split and the August 31, 2020 4 for 1 split the prices need to be adjusted to $25 and $14.50. Apple, post split, should open at about $125 Monday August 31, 2020.
“This will sound like one(a recommendation)and I will admit in the interest of full and complete disclosure, I did buy some Apple today. I did it because I felt that the media/street rant that followed the release of quarterly earnings was so stupid and such a massive Wall Street fade of sentiment, I could not resist. Caveat reader, I can be very wrong from time to time. There will be no follow-ups and I will not report when, and if, I exit the stock.
我没有听说早上“was the media brutalizing the analyst corps for herding investors into the name at $700 eight months ago (summer 2012). There was no disgust, nor was there any outrage at the lemming-like race to cut estimates and price targets this morning (4/24) after stock had fallen 40%.”
History may be rhyming here
Monday August 24, Apple hit a record high of $515.14. That morning, after the stock had made a $130 sprint in less than four weeks (simply on the report of an earnings surprise and the news of a 4 for 1 stock split), the J.P. Morgan analyst raised his target price on the stock from $430 to $520. For a moment that was the street high estimate until this:“Wedbush slaps a new street high price target on Apple.”Wedbush analyst Dan Ives’ base case target is became $600 per share. $600 is the base but he added a bull case could be made for $700 per share.
To me this is a warning sign and resembles the type of calls being made eight years ago.
That was then. This is now.
- 2014年4月24日苹果公司为$ 400（$ 58 ADJ为7：1分6/9/2014）。），产生3％，在10倍市盈率（例如在资产负债表6X现金$ 100万美元）出售，总市值$ 380万美元。没人喜欢它。
- Today (8/27/20) AAPL closed at $500.04, yielding .66%, selling at 38x trailing twelve month earnings, 34 x ex. cash), market cap $2.138 trillion ( just about equal to the combined market cap of the entire Russell 2000 index). Today, like the summer of 2012, everybody loves it except for those bears making the negative call all the way up.记住停止时钟是正确的，至少一天两次。
I have currently written calls against a portion of my Apple position and as I have stated above, I have been known to make mistakes. Apple is a fabulous company, the greatest consumer technology company the world has ever seen. For those of us who have been lucky enough to own the shares it has been a terrific ride. However, considering the widespread love affair that the street has had with the name and the analysts leapfrogging one another with increased price targets we may be due for some sort of replay of the 2012/2013 experience. Ergo, it may not be a bad time to take a few chips off the table. And, if the hype has got you thinking about adding to or initiating a position, maybe it is time to think twice.
Lest we give the appearance of picking on Apple, I would point out in this market, where it has been all about 24/7 tech stock parabolic leadership, there are many companies, much less substantial than Apple, that appear to be way out there on the end of the limb … continuing with the metaphor … ‘no tree grows to the sky’.
The information presented inkortsessions.com代表我自己的观点，并且不包含任何特定投资或证券的建议。我可能，不时，何况某些证券用于说明目的，在这里我个人认为职位名称。这些并不意味着被理解为买入或卖出的建议。所有的投资和战略应经过审慎的考虑基于风险的适宜性，风险承受能力和个人财务状况的进行。万博manbetx太子龙